Darnytsia Transforms Forecasting Capabilities with TimeGPT: Enhanced Accuracy Amid Uncertain Times

Summary

Darnytsia, Ukraine’s largest pharmaceutical producer, needed faster and more accurate sales and electricity demand forecasts amid the disruptions of war. Traditional models like Auto ARIMA and Facebook Prophet fell short, prompting the company to adopt TimeGPT. This AI-powered solution now processes 5,000 product forecasts in just one minute, enhancing decision-making and operational efficiency.

According to Serhii Kolchyk of Darnytsia, “TimeGPT has completely transformed our forecasting process, delivering rapid and highly reliable predictions almost instantaneously”

By seamlessly integrating TimeGPT, Darnytsia not only predicts its own sales but also those of competitors, improving market responsiveness. The platform has also optimized energy procurement, strengthening resilience in volatile conditions. As a result, the company achieved a 22% reduction in cloud costs and a 10% increase in revenue.

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Customer Overview

‍Company headquarters location: Ukraine
Company size: 1,000+ employees
Industry: Pharmaceutical

Darnytsia is Ukraine's largest producer of medicinal products, boasting a legacy of over 95 years as a leader in the domestic pharmaceutical market. The company specializes in cardiology, neurology, and pain management.

Serhii Kolchyk, Head of Analytics and Digital Innovation at Darnytsia Pharmaceutical Company is a senior analytics and digital innovation leader with over 10 years of experience turning data into strategic business value. He utilizes Business Intelligence and AI solutions to drive operational excellence and empower smarter decision-making. At Darnytsia, he heads a Centre of Excellence that has significantly boosted performance and enhanced market responsiveness. His innovative approach has positioned the company as a pioneer in digital transformation within the pharmaceutical sector.

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Challenge

Amid the disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, Darnytsia needed to enhance the accuracy and speed of its sales and market forecasts. Traditional models such as Auto ARIMA and Facebook Prophet were too slow and prone to significant errors, hindering effective decision-making. Furthermore, the company faced the additional challenge of forecasting electricity demand as it increasingly relied on imported power due to instability in local energy supplies.

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Solution

TimeGPT delivered a robust and scalable solution that greatly improved Darnytsia’s ability to forecast both sales and electricity demand. The tool processes 5,000 product forecasts in just one minute, boosting operational efficiency. It also integrates seamlessly into existing workflows, optimizing resource allocation and streamlining the forecasting process.

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Implementation

Darnytsia seamlessly integrated TimeGPT into its operations by gathering daily data from various sources: historical sales, market trends, seasonal fluctuations, and economic indicators - to generate precise quarterly forecasts. Now, the company can effortlessly predict not only its own sales but also those of competitors and numerous medicine categories. With an intuitive interface designed for ease of use, even sales managers familiar with Excel can operate the tool without difficulty. A dedicated monitoring platform ensures real-time adjustments, maintaining forecast quality and driving efficient decision-making.

In addition, Darnytsia recognizes that bringing new drugs to market is a lengthy process - often taking 3-5 years. Thanks to TimeGPT, the company now plans to leverage even more global data on drug sales to track promising new drugs and monitor the production of generics in Ukraine. This advanced analytical capability opens new avenues for identifying market trends early, ultimately accelerating innovation and supporting more agile decision-making in the pharmaceutical sector.

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Kolchyk says, "Darnytsia seamlessly integrated TimeGPT into its operations, allowing us to predict not only our own sales but also those of competitors and various medicine categories,"

Impact

Since adopting TimeGPT, Darnytsia has revolutionized its forecasting process, achieving a level of speed and accuracy that previous models simply couldn’t match. Beyond sales predictions, the system’s capability to forecast electricity demand has transformed energy procurement - enabling the company to strategically manage imports and bolster its resilience amid the disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine.

Kolchyk says, "This breakthrough has also resulted in a 22% reduction in cloud costs and a 10% increase in revenue, underscoring the tangible impact of enhanced forecasting precision"

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Testimonial

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"In the past, we relied on Auto ARIMA and Facebook Prophet, methods that were slow and not always accurate. Today, TimeGPT has completely transformed our forecasting process, empowering us to deliver rapid and highly reliable predictions for thousands of products almost instantaneously. This solution stands out for its dependable performance and impressive accuracy in our forecasts."
— Serhii Kolchyk, Head of Analytics and Digital Innovation, Darnytsia